Your curated list of wagers for Week 10 of the NFL season, from moneylines and player props to overlooked underdogs.
NFL Week 10 Best Bets Overview 2022
Best Over/Under Bet of Week 10
- Over/Under: 50.5
For most of the last two decades, the Jaguars have trotted out pedestrian-at-best offenses led by QBs such as Blake Bortles, Gardner Minshew, Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert. Their coaching personnell left a lot to be desired as well.
In turn, Jacksonville would typically sit amongst the bottom of the league when it came to scoring, en route to occupying their usual place in or close to the AFC cellar. Those days appear to be over, however, with Trevor Lawrence installed.
Yes, one cannot deny that this is actually a real offense now in place. The Jags are averaging 22.1 points per game halfway through, which is significant because they were plating more than 20 points only once in the prior six seasons — their miraculous near-Super Bowl trip of 2017.
This definitely is not a mirage. Lawrence is having a very solid sophomore campaign, carrying a respectable 87.5 passer rating that ranks him ahead of names like Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford. He’s on pace to shatter his marks of a year ago.
But what makes this group so encouraging is the talented supporting cast. Travis Etienne, for instance, looks like a genuine do-everything running back. Additionally, the No. 1 wide-out, Christian Kirk, is playing like one after displaying notable potential in Arizona.
All of this is well and good from an opponent when eyeing an over involving the juggernaut that is the Chiefs. You know those guys tend to always deliver.
Unsurprisingly, Patrick Mahomes has KC at the top of the league in scoring again, being the only club in football to be cranking out at least 30 points on average. One of the most underrated feats going is that the Chiefs have always averaged more than 28 points in each of Mahomes’ five years as Kansas City’s QB1.
Those high-scoring tendencies go up a few notches when Mahomes and Co. are playing in front of Chiefs faithful. In 43 career starts at home (including playoffs), the Texas Tech product has led his squad to a remarkable average of 29.5 points per game.
Furthermore, an extra layer making it tougher stopping KC from decorating the scoreboard is the fact that the Jaguars haven’t fared so hot against tight ends. In Week 10, they’ll be seeing unquestionably the best at the position with Travis Kelce ready to showcase his talents once again.
Kelce just logged season-highs last time out in catches (10) and targets (17), and now he draws a D that ranks dead last in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) opposing tight ends in general.
As is usually the case in their kingdom, the Chiefs can provide a friendly game script that favors points. If the Jags are trailing for the bulk of it, they, too, will have their opportunities to supply points seeing as how Kansas City is one of three defenses to be allowing a 100.0 or higher passer rating to opposing QBs and are tied for the most TD throws (17) given up as well.
With the total being right around 50, I recommend buying a half point to be protected in the event of a 34-16 final.
The Pick: OVER 50 (-120)
Best Point Spread Bet of Week 10
Played in Munich, Germany
- Spread: Seahawks +2.5/Buccaneers -2.5
Many may argue that the wrong team is being favored here in this battle of first-place clubs. After all, the Seahawks boast the better record at 6-3, easily dwarfing the 4-5 mark attached to the Buccaneers.
Yet it is the latter that is being provided a spread to cover. In addition, this isn’t even a true home affair for Tampa Bay, with the game serving as the first-ever contest to be played in Germany. Of course, if this were emanating from Raymond James Stadium, the Bucs being positioned as favorites would make much more sense.
No matter, I like Tampa as our best spread bet for a second straight week after notching us a push in their three-point victory over the Rams. That could be a turning point in propelling the reigning NFC South champions to their potential.
This could also be a matchup that works in their favor. While Seattle has been successful thanks in large part to a consistently productive offense — one that is shockingly fourth in the league in scoring with 26.8 points per game — this is one of the biggest tests they’ll have all season. The Bucs ride a defense that is easily regarded among the upper echelon.
Another sizable ingredient in the success of the Seahawks this year is their penchant for turnovers on the defensive side of the ball. Their 15 takeaways rank them tied for fourth in the league, but au contraire, they’re about to be challenged by a team that rarely turns it over. With just seven giveaways, Tampa is tied for the second-fewest turnovers in the NFL.
So, ball security is definitely a big part of my reasoning here. Factor in that Tom Brady will be in complete control of things — he’s thrown 40 or more passes in seven consecutive ballgames — and I like him to continue leading a Bucs surge the second half of the campaign. Their offense is certainly due to start etching more points.
The Pick: BUCCANEERS -2.5 (-118)
Best Teaser Bet (2 teams, 6 points) of Week 10
Jim Irsay will forever be the face anyone sees when looking up a blueprint on how to destroy a franchise as fast as possible.
The Colts entered the season with legitimate championship aspirations. For some reason, though, when Indy was 3-3-1 and still in the thick of things in the AFC South, they opted to bench future Hall-of-Fame QB Matt Ryan, while he was fourth in the NFL in total passing yards, mind you.
Shortly proceeding that, head coach Frank Reich was given the axe, only to be replaced by recent high-school football coach Jeff Saturday. This is not a joke.
And so the Colts will take it to the road in their first game with the new skipper, he of no coaching experience whatsoever in the NFL or even college. How can this end well? Making things more challenging, they’ll be traveling to face an angry Raiders squad that’s been a lot better than their record.
Would you believe they’ve already tied the record for most blown 17-point leads with three? Uh, there’s still half a slate to be played. At the same time, such a stat actually indicates a quality team considering they’re able to go up decisively on an opponent in the first place.
After crafting yet another one of these collapses last week, it’s impossible to see Las Vegas take this home matchup for granted. It won’t let a date versus Sam Ehlinger, who has guided the Colts to 19 total points in his pair of starts, slip away.
As for the other half of our teaser, that will rest solely in the hands of Aaron Rodgers, which is normally a good thing. Of course, the former MVP is on a rare four-game losing streak, but we just need the Pack to not get blown out … at Lambeau Field.
The most tempting about including Green Bay in this spot is that you can count the number of times Rodgers has been beaten by more than 10 points at home on one hand. It’s only happened three times in his decorated career (not including the final meaningless game of the 2018 season when Rodgers barely played), and the odds of it happening here are only more unlikely given that this resembles a must-win scenario.
Best Prop Bet of Week 10
- D’Onta Foreman Over/Under 12.5 Carries
Well, hopefully this was caught by most on Twitter!
(Another reason to make sure you’re following me @MattZylbert in case I concoct something at the last minute)
If you did miss out on this week’s prop bet from Thursday Night Football, I suggest a detail from our aforementioned over/under: Travis Etienne Over 2.5 Receptions (-160). The second-year tailback will surely be involved plenty, and if this matchup follows the suspected game flow, enough targets will be there.
NFL Best Bets Record for the 2022 Season
- Over/Unders: “4-5”
- Spreads: “3-3-1”
- Teasers: “2-4-1”
- Props: “5-6”
- Overall Record*: “14-18-2,” -10.1 units
*Each over/under is graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit
**Does not include D’Onta Foreman carries prop from Thursday Night
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