Get set for a strawweight main event at the UFC Apex with the latest Rodriguez vs. Lemos odds, curated prop bets, and a big fight prediction powered by FanDuel Sportsbook.
On Saturday, Nov. 5, the Ultimate Fighting Championship heads back to the cozy environs of the UFC Apex for UFC Vegas 64. While the card doesn’t contain the star power needed to seduce a ton of casuals, it does feature a pair of potential strawweight title contenders in Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos.
(And besides, a packed UFC 281 pay-per-view card takes over Madison Square Garden next weekend anyway.)
The evening’s headliners were intended to be undefeated featherweights Movsar Evloev and Bryce Mitchell, but the bout fell through after Evloev suffered an injury. Forced to pivot, UFC matchmakers took the bout between Rodriguez and Lemos that was originally expected to take place at UFC 280 and elevated it to Fight Night headliner status.
Rodriguez is riding an impressive four-fight winning streak, taking down a mix of fan favorites and rising contenders like Michelle Waterson-Gomez, Yan Xiaonan, Mackenzie Dern, and Amanda Ribas. Step by step, Rodriguez has vocalized desires to fight for a championship, going as far as saying that the Lemos clash is “a fight that doesn’t make sense.”
But winning has a way of working everything out, doesn’t it?
Lemos, meanwhile, brings a similar confidence with her to Vegas. Leading up to the bout, she expressed a desire to be aggressive and showcase the evolution of her grappling skills. If she wants to take Rodriguez’s place in the queue for a 115-pound title shot, she’ll want to showcase some trademark power early and often.
The strawweight division is currently looking up at champion Carla Esparza, who is set to defend the title next weekend at UFC 281 against former champ Zhang Weili. Notably, Esparza happens to be the only blemish on Rodriguez’s record — a razor-thin split decision in 2021 that easily could have gone the other way.
With all this in mind, let’s look at the odds and major prop bets for Saturday’s Rodriguez vs. Lemos main event at UFC Vegas 64 courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook, plus a big fight prediction.
Rodriguez vs. Lemos Fight Info
UFC Vegas 64 — Main Event Strawweight Bout
No. 3 Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2, 6 KOs, 1 Submission)
No. 7 Amanda Lemos (12-2-1 7 KOs, 3 Submissions)
Date: Saturday, November 5, 2022
Fight Time: The main card begins at 7 p.m. ET
Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, United States
Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos Odds to Win
Marina Rodriguez: -235
Amanda Lemos: +180
UFC Vegas 64 Lemos vs. Rodriguez Prop Bets
Method of Victory
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
Over/Under Total Rounds
OVER 4.5: -104
UNDER 4.5: -122
Rodriguez vs. Lemos Prediction
UFC Vegas 64 Rodriguez vs. Lemos prediction percentages courtesy of Tapology Fight Predictions.
- Projected winner: Marina Rodriguez (87%)
- Projected method of victory: Decision (82%)
In the words of Lemos, I don’t see this fight ending in a decision, although fans have tended this week to choose Marina to coast to a decision victory. Both Rodriguez and Lemos are aggressive fighters, with the former slightly holding the edge in the power department; conversely, Rodriguez is a clinical Muay Thai specialist who averages more than five strikes per minute.
With both fighters adamant about finishing the fight before the allotted 25 minutes expire, the matchup will likely boil down to Lemos’s stopping power and stamina versus Rodriguez’s laser-accurate, non-stop action. For that reason, the technical ability of Rodriguez is the x-factor, opening counter opportunities that lead to a stoppage on the feet.
Lemos vs. Rodriguez Prediction: I’ll take Rodriguez by KO/TKO (+250) in the championship rounds.
UFC Vegas 64 Rodriguez vs. Lemos Betting Trends & Stats
- Marina Rodriguez defeated Yan Xiaonan by a split decision in her most recent fight on March 5, 2022.
- Amanda Lemos defeated Michelle Waterson-Gomez by submission in her most recent fight on July 16, 2022.
- Rodriguez averages 5.03 significant strikes landed per minute with a 47% accuracy rate.
- Lemos averages 4.87 significant strikes landed per minute with a 57% accuracy rate.
- Rodriguez averages 3.07significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 57% defense rate.
- Lemos averages 4.40 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 48% defense rate.
- Rodriguez has a 65% takedown defense rate.
- Lemos has an 81% takedown defense rate.
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