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UFC 286: How Are Oddsmakers Handicapping the Usman vs. Edwards Trilogy?

Last Updated: July 1, 2023

This article originally appeared at FanDuel.

Check out the latest Usman vs. Edwards odds and an expert prediction for the main event of Saturday’s UFC 286 card from the O2 Arena in London.

The main event of UFC 286 in London features a trilogy bout for the welterweight championship of the world — let’s get set for the 170-pound scrap with a big Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman prediction, plus the latest odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3 Fight Info, Date & Time

UFC 28: Welterweight Championship Main Event
Leon “Rocky” Edwards (20-3, 7 KO)
Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (20-2, 9 KOs)
Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023
Fight Time: Main card begins at 5 p.m. ET.
Venue: O2 Arena, London, UK
Coverage: ESPN+ PPV

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Usman vs. Edwards Odds & Prop Bets

All UFC 286 odds, lines, and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.


  • Leon Edwards: +198
  • Kamaru Usman: -250

Method of victory:

  • Edwards by KO/TKO: +500
  • Edwards by submission: +1600
  • Edwards by points/decision: +500
  • Usman by KO/TKO: +310
  • Usman by submission: +1600
  • Usman by points/decision: +115

Edwards vs. Usman Prediction

Everybody knew this trilogy matchup was inevitable. After Leon Edwards’ iconic welterweight championship win over Kamaru Usman, an instant re-booking was always going to be in the cards.

While fighters who lost a previous matchup don’t have a great track record in UFC rematches, I’m not too concerned about that trend.

Through 24 minutes and four seconds, last year’s bout looked just like a typical Kamaru Usman fight — utterly dominant. Usman landed five takedowns on 12 attempts, holding control positions for 10 minutes and 36 seconds. He out-landed Rocky 83 to 55 in significant strikes (even including 46 to 42 when striking from distance). That’s exactly the kind of performance we usually see from Usman, and the kind of performance I expect to see repeated.

It was already great to see Usman get back to a wrestling-heavy approach after having so much success with his striking in recent fights, and after getting knocked out, I expect him to lean even more heavily into his strengths in this fight.

Edwards’ defensive wrestling is strong enough to drag this one out, but Usman should once again spend a huge chunk of the fight controlling Edwards in the clinch and on the ground.

UFC 286 PREDICTION: Kamaru Usman wins by decision.

Usman vs. Edwards Best Bet

As I write this no prop bets have been released yet, so we might find some more value when they are, but honestly, I’m not too concerned. While my pick is Usman by decision, he’s still very live to finish Edwards and I’m happy to take a worse price to just get Usman to win straight up.

UFC 286 BEST BET: Kamaru Usman to win

Jason Schandl

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