This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.
To close out the Week 11 schedule, our friends at FanDuel have all the odds and props you need for the Super Bowl rematch — Eagles vs. Chiefs.
This matchup is fraught with storylines. Not only will we see a Super Bowl LVII rematch, but this could be a preview of what we may have in store for Super Bowl LVIII — both teams enter the night as the betting favorite to win their respective conference.
The Kelce brothers will also face each other for the fifth time ever. Travis Kelce has yet to lose against Jason Kelce.
Each team is fresh off a bye week, and former Eagles-turned-Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has a storied 20-3 record following the bye.
Can Andy Reid maintain his post-bye dominance? Or will Jalen Hurts and the Birds come into Arrowhead Stadium and get revenge on last season’s Super Bowl victors?
The can’t-miss game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET and can be watched on ABC and ESPN.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
- Total: 45.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs -148 | Eagles +126
Eagles vs. Chiefs Matchup Analysis
Home-field advantage is the biggest swing vote with this spread. Similar to last season, Kansas City has dropped just one game at Arrowhead, with this year’s singular home loss coming in a Kelce-less season opener against the Detroit Lions.
Away teams at Arrowhead are drawing the second-fewest penalties among road sides in the NFL, and the Chiefs are averaging one extra takeaway at home. With that being said, it’s hard to imagine this Eagles team, one that boasts the best record in the league, coming out anything other than strongly tonight.
Per numberFire’s power rankings, the Eagles have the sixth-best offense, while the Chiefs have the eighth-best O. Patrick Mahomes ranks a hair above Jalen Hurts by Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, though Hurts has a bit more talent to work with on offense.
AJ Brown is one of four players in the league to have already hit the 1,000-receiving-yard mark, DeVonta Smith is about as good as it gets as far as second-string receiving targets are concerned, and D’Andre Swift has been a great addition to the backfield.
The Chiefs’ offense has been somewhat muted over their last two games, scoring just two touchdowns in that span. Mahomes and Kansas City are the type of team to bounce back from this, especially given the bye week, though we shouldn’t expect much action to happen on the ground tonight.
Isiah Pacheco has been good in his sophomore season, but the Eagles give up fewer rush yards than anyone in the league — by a lot. Although the Birds’ D is a bastion on the ground, their secondary does not fare as well. On a per-game basis, Philadelphia gives up the fourth-most passing yards and second-most passing touchdowns.
Though Mahomes’ non-Kelce receivers can sometimes feel like choosing a name out of a hat, the reigning MVP can pick apart even the strongest of pass defenses, so it’s safe to say that heavier rainfall would likely favor the Eagles tonight.
Rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice has worked his way up the Mahomes’ target totem pole as of late, while Skyy Moore ranks third (behind Kelce and Rice) in target share. No team allows a higher pass-play percentage than Philadelphia does so look for the already pass-heavy Chiefs to continue this game plan.
While the Eagles give up the fourth-most passing yards, the Chiefs give up the fourth-fewest.
Kansas City has, by numberFire’s metrics, the sixth-best defense in the league, which is led — first and foremost — by their solid pass defense. They give up the third-fewest yards per pass attempt and average the third-most sacks per game.
Their defense struggles more on the ground, sacrificing the 16th-most rushing yards and fourth-most yards per rush attempt, so look for a big game from Swift.
Tight end Dallas Goedert is one of few notable injuries in this game, and his third-highest target share could swing the door open for alternative Philadelphia receivers.
The final score of last season’s Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl matchup stood at 38-35, while their meeting in 2021 — the only other Mahomes-vs.-Hurts game — resulted in a 42-30 Chiefs victory. A towering 18 touchdowns were scored across these two games.
While tougher defenses and dicey weather may help the defenses tonight, historically, these games have been shootouts, and it wouldn’t be bold to expect this one to come down to the wire.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Best Bets
D’Andre Swift Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-130) / 70+ Rushing Yards (+138)
Iffy weather, an unforgiving Kansas City pass D, and a so-so KC run defense — this game has all the fixings for a monster D’Andre Swift game.
Save for a no-show season opener outing — prior to Swift’s preeminence on the Eagles running back depth chart — he is averaging 76.38 rush yards on 16.75 carries per game.
As mentioned, the Chiefs let up the fourth-most yards per rush attempt. They also force the third-highest rush-play percentage at home.
Though Jalen Hurts will undoubtedly be a candidate to see some work on the ground, Swift’s workload should be strong tonight — Kenneth Gainwell has only five carries over his last two games.
The Chiefs come into the night with the fourth-ranked overall defense. The Eagles have played three teams that rank in the top 12 of numberFire’s defensive power rankings this season. Swift averaged 116 rush yards against these teams (Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
numberFire’s model predicts Swift to rush for 69.72 yards on 15.69 carries. I’m all in on Swift to surpass his rush attempts prop — he’s done so in all but one game since the season opener. You can also get Swift Over 59.5 Rushing Yards at -114, though I like the idea of committing to a big Swift game and targeting him to run for 70-plus yards at +138.
Skyy Moore Any Time Touchdown (+600)
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for eight touchdowns in just two career games against the Eagles. The Birds are allowing the second-most passing touchdowns per game (2.1) and have allowed the most over their last three games (2.7).
Travis Kelce (-125 anytime TD) and Rashee Rice (+200) are the likely touchdown recipients, but I think Mahomes spreads the wealth enough to make Skyy Moore a potentially worthwhile move at +600.
Moore has reached the end zone just once this season, but he does have the third-highest mark in both target share and route rate on the team. More importantly, he has a decent enough 11.8% red zone target share (fourth) and a sizable 18.8% end zone target share (tied for second).
The odds on this prove it’s a longshot, but the Chiefs should continue to play a pass-first game in this matchup, and if Mahomes gets going, I think Moore is a good candidate to get in on the fun.
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