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Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler Odds, Props & Prediction: UFC 281

Boardroom provides the odds, props, and a prediction as Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler cross paths at UFC 281 in hopes of earning a title shot.

Using, buying, selling, or transporting any consumer fireworks in NYC may be illegal. However, the Ultimate Fighting Championship is set to light up the Madison Square Garden skies with a steady dose of blazing fights on Saturday.

One fight, in particular, sees two of the most combustible fighters on the UFC roster — Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler — fight it out for yet another chance to compete for UFC gold.

Both Poirier and Chandler have cemented themselves as true fan favorites, and for a multitude of reasons. Fight fans can consistently trust their promise to deliver controlled carnage only to be recollected as all-out wars. And unlike other fighters on the UFC roster, neither Poirier nor Chandler unexpectedly wavers from their words on fight night. Instead, what you hear leading up to fight night is the product you get inside the octagon.

UFC 281 should be no different.

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Both adversaries have immense respect for each other. After all, their combat careers have emphasized the importance of fatherhood, selecting meaningful fights, and collecting the most extensive check possible to provide for their families. One look at their latest encounter would be enough to dispel any concept of past manufactured beef between the lightweights.

However, an abundance of respect doesn’t overpower the will and desire to become the best lightweight in the world.

Poirier will end an 11-month layoff since his loss to Charles Oliveira last December. Before then, the Lafayette representative was on top of the MMA world, with his trademark hot sauce skyrocketing after defeating MMA’s biggest star Conor McGregor, twice in succession. Yet, despite the time off, Dustin’s coach Mike Brown has stated that he’s never seen “The Diamond” so motivated in his training and that it’s the best version he’s witnessed of the American Top Team member.

Chandler is on a mission right after defeating Tony Fergurson by emphatic knockout in May, snapping a two-fight losing streak. Loses never stopped “Iron Mike” from attempting to finish every opponent placed in front of him. As expected, he’s already shared his game plan of creating an ultra-fast pace, dominating in all areas, and getting his hand raised.

Poirier versus Chandler possesses all the ingredients necessary to produce one of the greatest fights. Both fighters will be hunting for the finishes, expecting to land a title shot.

With all this in mind, let’s look at the odds and major prop bets for Saturday’s Poirier vs. Chandler lightweight clash t at UFC 281 courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook, plus a big fight prediction.

Poirier vs. Chandler Fight Info

UFC 281 — Main Card Lightweight Bout
No. 2 Dustin Poirier (28-7-1, 14 KOs, 7 Submission)
No. 5 Michael Chandler (23-7-0 7 KOs, 3 Submissions)
Date: Saturday, November 12, 2022
Fight Time: The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET
Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, United States
Coverage: ESPN+

Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler Odds to Win

All UFC 281 odds, lines, and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change ahead of the fight.


Dustin Poirier: -235
Michael Chandler: +180

UFC 281 Poirier vs. Chandler Prop Bets

Method of Victory

Poirier by:

KO/TKO: +125
Points: +380
Submission: +700 

Chandler by:

KO/TKO: +380
Points: +950
Submission: +1000

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Yes: +260
No: -280

Over/Under Total Rounds

OVER 1.5: -134
UNDER 1.5: +104

Poirier vs. Chandler Prediction

UFC 281 Poirier vs. Chandler prediction percentages courtesy of Tapology Fight Predictions.

  • Projected winner: Dustin Poirier (77%)
  • Projected method of victory: KO/TKO (64%)

Dustin Poirier has some of the best boxing in the UFC, let alone within the division. He puts together better combinations and has been tested by more of the division’s upper echelon. With each man possessing dynamite in their fists, it’ll be interesting to see who lands with power sooner and who shoots for the first takedown.

Both men fight at a similar pace, both offensively and defensively. They’re nearly equal in throwing volume and either absorbing or evading damage. In recent showings, Poirier has shown the ability to hang with the top of the division and weather them down with his vicious onslaught and durability. Chandler, however, has matched a similar pace and ferocity. However, he’s also shown tendencies of getting caught hard and dropped in striking exchanges.

Here, we’ll see a firefight with both men looking to dish out heavy punishment early. While Poirier has shown the ability to

Poirier vs. Chandler Prediction: I’ll take Poirier by KO/TKO stoppage (+125) after a whirlwind of fiery exchanges.

UFC 281 Poirier vs. Chandler Betting Trends & Stats

  • Dustin Poirier was defeated by Charles Oliveira by submission in his most recent fight on Dec. 11, 2021.
  • Michael Chandler defeated Tony Ferguson by KO/TKO in his most recent fight on May 7, 2022.
  • Poirier averages 5.61 significant strikes landed per minute with a 50% accuracy rate.
  • Chandler averages 5.17 significant strikes landed per minute with a 46% accuracy rate.
  • Poirier averages 4.28 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 53% defense rate.
  • Chandler averages 4.87 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 45% defense rate.
  • Poirier has a 64% takedown defense rate.
  • Chandler has a 71% takedown defense rate.

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