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Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan Odds, Props, & Prediction: UFC Vegas 61

UFC Vegas 61 Dern vs. Yan is a strawweight chess match. Our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook have the latest odds, picks, and predictions.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is switching up its usual production standards for its upcoming strawweight main event clash. Mackenzie Dern is set to take on Yan Xiaonan in a polar opposite matchup in the UFC Apex arena that will be closed off to the public and media. Yeah, that’s right: a good old empty arena showdown featuring one of the MMA’s finest grapplers versus one of the strawweight division’s best strikers.

The adversaries couldn’t be more different in their style and approach to the cage. Dern’s top-notch Brazilian jiu-jitsu has earned her seven submission victories in her professional mixed martial arts career. However, the decorated grappling sensation has yet to taste the triumph of victory by knockout. Contrarily, Xiaonan has collected seven knockouts on her resume compared to zero submissions tallied.

Regardless of the outcome, a definitive win here will more than likely bring the victor to the doorstep of a title shot. With that in mind, let’s look at the latest Dern vs. Yan odds and share some key fight insights via our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook, including a prediction for the final result.

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Mackenzie Dern vs. Yan Xiaonan Fight Info

UFC UFC Vegas 61 — Main Event Strawweight Bout
No. 5 Mackenzie Dern (12-2-0, 0 KOs, 7 Submissions)
No. 6 Yan Xiaonan (15-3-0, 7 KOs, 0 Submissions)
Date: Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022
Fight Time: The main card begins at 7 p.m. ET
Venue: UFC Apex, Enterprise, Nevada
Coverage: ESPN+

Mackenzie Dern vs. Yan Xiaonan Odds to Win

All UFC Vegas 61 odds, lines, and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.


Mackenzie Dern: -260
Yan Xiaonan: +196

UFC Vegas 61 Prop Bets

Method of Victory

Dern by:

KO/TKO: +1100
Points: +420
Submission: -110

Yan by:

KO/TKO: +600
Points: +380
Submission: +2600

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Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Yes: +168
No: -220

Over/Under Total Rounds

OVER 4.5: +142
UNDER 4.5: -182

Mackenzie Dern vs. Yan Xiaonan Prediction

UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs. Yan prediction percentages courtesy of Tapology Fight Predictions.

Projected winner: Mackenzie Dern (84%)
Projected method of victory: Decision (78%)

The last time Dern stepped into the octagon, she met a striker in Tecia Torres and escaped with a split-decision victory. Regardless, Dern’s showcase against Marina Rodriguez closest resembles the upcoming matchup concerning Yan’s power, durability, and speed.

Dern, one of MMA’s most accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners, is Tapology’s projected winner by submission — and by a wide margin. However, I think this matchup will be a closer fight than the numbers suggest. Even though the favorite is a wizard on the ground, it’s a laboring process for her to take opponents down there, and her striking has a long, long way to go. Pair that with Yan’s better-than-average takedown defense rate and fans may begin to witness a game within the game.

There will be moments in this fight where the opportunity to get the action to the ground will materialize. From there, Dern has to distinguish if she wants to risk the crapshoot of feeling Yan’s power in exchange for a single-leg or attempt to control things on the feet in order to create chances up against the cage. Standing with Yan is a danger in itself, as she possesses the power, volume, and pace to pounce with a vicious onslaught that could end the fight.

Ultimately, it’s foreseeable that Dern finds the right opportunities in small windows to get Yan to the ground. She’ll use kicks to maintain the distance and ultimately get her opponent in the clinch against the fence later in rounds. Once the ground game unleashes itself, expect Dern to show her world-class BJJ pedigree and earn the victory by armbar or rear-naked choke.

DERN VS. YAN PREDICTION: I’ll take Dern by submission here at -110 after enduring Yan’s potent offense early in the fight.

UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs. Yan Betting Trends & Stats

  • Mackenzie Dern defeated Tecia Torres by split decision in her most recent fight on Apr 9, 2022.
  • Yan Xiaonan lost to Marina Rodriguez by split decision in her most recent fight on Mar 5, 2022.
  • Dern averages 3.16 significant strikes landed per minute with a 35% accuracy rate.
  • Xiaonan averages 5.66 significant strikes landed per minute with a 42% accuracy rate.
  • Dern averages 4.35 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 54% defense rate.
  • Xiaonan averages 3.77 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 62% defense rate.
  • Dern has a 40% takedown defense rate.
  • Xiaonan has a 65% takedown defense rate.

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Rory Robinson