College Football’s Semi-Pro Economy & Why the NFL Draft Isn’t a Sure Thing

College football is in its semi-pro era, reshaping the NFL Draft calculus as quarterbacks weigh guaranteed NIL money against rookie contracts.

After four years at Georgia, quarterback Carson Beck declared for the NFL Draft on Dec. 28, 2024, slated to make millions as a mid-round pick. But instead of taking that route, Beck entered the transfer portal on Jan. 9 and inked a $4 million deal to play out his final season of college eligibility at Miami, where he succeeded Heisman Trophy winner and eventual top pick Cam Ward. Now, Beck will play next week for a national championship as he’s still in line to make good NFL money at age 23, but now with a guaranteed $4 million in his pocket.

The passing of the House Settlement and the introduction of revenue sharing in Division I athletics have only enhanced this trend and the appeal of college football quarterbacks staying in school an extra year rather than try their luck in the NFL Draft. Alabama‘s Ty Simpson may be the perfect example of that. Despite declaring for the NFL Draft, at least three SEC teams reportedly have interest, with another school offering him up to $6.5 million to stay in college next season and enter the transfer portal prior to Friday’s deadline.

Alabama QB Ty Simpson continues to receive NIL offers from Power Four programs hoping to keep him in college for 2026, per @aldotcom.

Three SEC schools have offered at least $4M, and another program has gone has high as $6.5 million. pic.twitter.com/buRK6TRZ7Z
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) January 12, 2026

Despite ESPN grading Simpson as a late first-round or early second-round pick, $6.5 million is extremely appealing. NFL quarterback Tyler Shough, who the New Orleans Saints selected 40th overall in last year’s draft, got a four-year, $10.8 million contract, including a $4.5 million signing bonus. We seem to be approaching the point that, unless you’re guaranteed to be drafted in the first round, it might pay to stay in school an extra year, essentially making major college football a semi-pro outfit right now.

College basketball has experiencing a similar trend for years now. With the introduction of NIL, NCAA hoops stars like Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe, Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, and North Carolina’s Armando Bacot made far more money by staying in school than they would have as an NBA second-round pick or G-Leaguer. Bacot signed a deal worth more than $1 million to play this year in Turkey with Fenerbahce, Timme is on a two-way contract with the Los Angeles Lakers worth just over $500,000, and Tsiebwe has a similar arrangement with the Utah Jazz.

Were they still college eligible, they would’ve made more money. It’s why, as we reported, more EuroLeague-caliber talent are electing to come from overseas to college basketball teams. It’s why some players with G-League experience who are still college eligible are electing to go back to school. The money right now is just better.

Right now, schools can directly spend up to $20.5 million on their student-athletes, with the vast majority of that total allocated to football, their largest revenue-generating sport. But that $20.5 million number is expected to rise, and with it the amount that teams will likely offer to quarterbacks like Simpson and new Texas Tech starter Brendan Sorsby, whose record-breaking NIL deal we discussed last week. How long will it take until quarterbacks can make more money in college than they would as first-round NFL Draft picks?

Jaxson Dart, the 25th overall pick last year from Ole Miss, earned a signing bonus of just under $9 million as part of a four-year rookie contract worth just under $17 million. We may get to a point where these QBs get a larger guarantee to stay in school than a first-rounder would receive as a signing bonus, making it worth risking an injury in college that could wipe out potential future NFL earnings. It will take longer for players at other positions like running back and wide receiver, where second-round picks like Houston Texans wideout Jayden Higgins and Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins still got roughly $5 million to sign, still way more than they’d earn for a year in college.

Yet the fact that we’re even having this conversation at all indicates the direction college football is going in. It’s how wide receiver Cam Coleman, who doesn’t turn 20 until August, can leave Auburn for a transfer portal NIL deal at Texas of at least $2 million. We’re talking free agency for hundreds of college kids every year to make upwards of seven figures at their new destinations. If that’s not at least semi-professional sports, I’m not sure what is.

Now, all we can do is wait and see how far things go before the next wave of substantial changes hits college football in this ever-changing landscape that made it possible for Beck to accept, and Simpson to consider, an offer that made it more financially prudent to keep the NFL waiting for one more year.