The current Atlanta Falcons RB and former Pro Bowl rusher discuss the current state of the running back market and the uphill battle for lucrative careers.
Bijan Robinson is one of the NFL’s most electrifying players. The Atlanta Falcons star displays a unique blend of power to wear down defenses between the tackles, the elusive speed to break a run for a touchdown every time he touches the ball, and pass-catching abilities that make him one of the game’s most dynamic threats out of the backfield.
But now more than ever before, the deck is stacked against running backs like Robinson to have a long and lucrative pro career. Teams lean heavily on players during their rookie deals before many are discarded for younger, cheaper runners with fewer miles on their proverbial odometers.
Once star players are eligible for free agency at 25 or 26, teams can use the franchise tag for a year or two to keep them from the open market and limit what should be the most lucrative years of their careers at the peak of their value and ability. At 27 or 28, teams are already wary, with very few exceptions, of running backs being on the back nine of their playing days and won’t offer contracts similar to their star peers at other spots on the field.
“Every position has gone up in value around the league except running back,” longtime former Pro Bowl running back Fred Taylor, a co-host of the Pivot Podcast, told Boardroom.
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The eighth overall pick in the 2023 draft, Robinson’s already racked up over 1,000 yards from scrimmage in rushing and receiving in just 10 games this season as the catalyst behind the division-leading Falcons. With an overall grade of 91.6, he’s Pro Football Focus‘ top-ranked running back to date in 2024.
In the last 10 years, just six running backs have been selected in the top 10 of the NFL Draft. Like Robinson, those players carried heavy workloads during the first years of their careers to justify the premium selection. As Robinson endures plenty of wear and tear on the field, he’s partnered with ORB Innovations to introduce a sport smart mouthguard that monitors physiological and biomechanical data to identify patterns, strengths, and areas for improvement.
Robinson told Boardroom that it tracks his heart rate and his impact, letting him and the team know whether he’s hit more on his right or left side during practices and games, along with other data points that he said even impressed Atlanta’s strength and conditioning staff.
“Taking care of my body is so important,” Robinson said, “and now I get a better look at how I can make myself and my body better week to week. A main focus for me is what I’m going to do to sustain my level of competition every single week and every single year.”
As teams have become more pass-oriented, Taylor noted that the running back position has taken a more committee-oriented approach, utilizing specialists who may be proficient power runners, pass catchers, or pass protectors. While less playing time means less wear and tear, it also decreases their market value and increases their expandability.
It’s why, from Year 1 to Year 2, Robinson prioritized pass blocking as a major area for improvement and growth, along with catching the ball, understanding his routes, running more confidently, and being more elusive when he knows where free hitters are coming from at all three levels of opposing defenses.
“In pass protection, I’m getting better at just anticipating who’s coming before the play even happens,” he said. “Even just pointing out on who’s coming in my head, I just know it’s coming.”
In the current running back landscape, just being a top-10 pick on his rookie deal makes Robinson an average-paid starting running back. Assuming Atlanta picks up his fifth-year option, the former University of Texas standout won’t hit free agency until 2028. And if current market trends over the last dozen-plus years hold, his earning power will be laughably low compared to his elite abilities.
This year, the league’s highest-paid running back in terms of percentage of the salary cap is San Francisco 49ers superstar Christian McCaffrey at 7.44% of the cap, per Spotrac. Not counting kickers and punters, only the center position has a lower cap percentage for its highest-paid player at 7.4%. Three tight ends earn a higher percentage of the cap this season than CMC.
Since Spotrac started tracking this data in 2011, when Adrian Peterson made 11.95% of the Vikings’ cap, this number has declined every year save for 2017. Back in 2011, Peyton Manning brought in 14.95% of the Colts’ cap to lead all quarterbacks, and Larry Fitzgerald‘s 13.41% from Arizona was the only wide receiver to earn more than 10% of a team’s cap total. Now, Joe Burrow leads the way at 24.47% of the Bengals’ cap, and 18 QBs eclipsed Manning’s 2011 league high. At 13.7%, Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson is one of 15 wide receivers earning at least 10% of their respective team’s cap total, up from just Fitz in 2011.
For the 2024 season, the franchise tag— the average of the five highest salaries at a given position or 120% of a player’s current salary, whatever’s greater— was $11.95 million for running backs. That was the lowest total for non-special teams positions. And as long as their salaries are low, why wouldn’t teams use this tool to keep it that way, since they can use the tag three times on a player?
“Unless the franchise tag gets changed or done away with,” Taylor said, “it’s going to hold running backs down.”
As he navigates his career, Robinson has spoken regularly with running backs, both young and old, about their processes and how they take care of their bodies, picking their brains to optimally sustain a high level of play. He’s had conversations, he said, with McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs, all supporting each other in different ways across individual conversations. None of those conversations, Robinson said, involve money.
In 2023, that situation turned dire, with no running back able to negotiate a salary above the franchise tag in free agency. That caused Austin Ekeler to convene a meeting of top players at the position and NFLPA executives to voice their collective frustration. Finally, last year, Barkley broke that mold after leaving the New York Giants for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Even Henry couldn’t get more than $9 million guaranteed in an incentive-laden deal with the Baltimore Ravens, but that seems like a lot these days for a running back on the wrong side of 30.
“For Derrick, it is a process that he’s been doing every single year, and how he takes care of his body and how he goes about his business,” Robinson said. “It’s definitely inspiring and I’m trying to be on that same track.
After a year on the franchise tag with the Giants, Barkley’s big breakthrough contract in Philadelphia was for three years and up to $46.75 million with $26 million fully guaranteed. To Taylor, it seems like the dream of a $100 million contract for a running back is all but dead. And based on the last 10 drafts, running backs being selected in the top 10 are an endangered species.
One possible exception this year is Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, putting up video game numbers so ridiculous that he reminds Taylor of the legendary LaDanian Tomlinson.
“I really do hope he will be the next guy,” Robinson said of Jeanty. “But to me, running backs just need to continue to implement themselves as an all-around back in college in the pass game, run game, and pass blocking. If they can show all that at a high level, there will be a lot of top running backs to come in the future.”
As Robinson impresses and excels in his second pro season, it’s hard not to think about what a second contract could look like if he remains at this statistical pace.
“For me, when that time comes,” he said, “I want to be at the best position possible and at the highest level of play possible.”
Taylor negotiated several contracts over his standout career with Jacksonville and New England, earning nearly $41 million over 13 seasons. When it comes to negotiating deals, he said, it’s about creating value and leverage. San Francisco saw the value in McCaffrey and rewarded him accordingly. The Giants, Taylor said, didn’t see the value in Barkley, and off he went.
As I closed my conversation with Robinson, it took some persistence and prodding to talk about how good he thinks he can be if he remains healthy and productive. Like all competitive running backs, he aspires to be one of the all-time greats like Barry Sanders or Walter Payton.
But for the 90-plus percent of running backs who aren’t as talented as Robinson, a lucrative career is an uphill battle, with every factor seemingly working against a player who doesn’t break the mold.
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