The Houston Rockets have the ability to trade for an NBA superstar this offseason, but should they break up their young, dynamic core?
The Houston Rockets failed to score 100 points in four of the seven games of their first-round playoff series against the Golden State Warriors. They lost three of those contests, including a 103-89 defeat in Sunday’s Game 7, eliminating the Western Conference’s second seed that eclipsed 50 regular-season wins for the first time in six years.
During most eras of the NBA, a team with a strong young, dynamic core — like the Rockets — showing great progress this season under a hard-nosed coach — like Ime Udoka — while instilling a rugged, defensive identity would ensure a long runway toward sustained success. Forward Amen Thompson is a 22-year-old defensive dynamo with enough athletic ability to be a perennial difference-making All-Star even if he never develops a jump shot. Fellow 22-year-old Alperen Sengun made his first All-Star team this year with the passing abilities of Domantas Sabonis, even garnering “Baby Jokic” comparisons at times. Scoring guard Jalen Green, also 22, forwards Jabari Smith and Tari Eason, 21 and 23, respectively, and guards Reed Sheppard and Cam Whitmore, both 20, are all potential-packed rotation players who could each help Houston make the leap back to a championship contender.
Subscribe for the biggest stories in the business of sports and entertainment, daily.
However, in the current NBA landscape, where star young players’ contract extensions can quickly eat up all cap space and get teams into the first and second apron faster than ever before, it requires teams to make difficult long-term decisions faster than they’re ready for. Months after reaching the conference finals for the first time in 20 years last year, Minnesota traded franchise cornerstone Karl-Anthony Towns to New York because it couldn’t afford to keep his massive salary and sustain roster balance to put a good enough supporting cast around Anthony Edwards. And a year after winning the NBA championship while chasing a title defense, there are already whispers that the Boston Celtics are going to have to break up part of their core because it’s become prohibitively expensive.
Houston can go in a number of directions this offseason and have the best team in the league that could potentially look vastly different in 4-5 months. Simply put: How the Rockets move this offseason will define their long-term future.
The simplest solution is to just stand pat and bring back the existing roster. They have the rest of the week to exercise veteran point guard Fred Van Vleet‘s $44.9 million contract for next season, which would take up 29% of the salary cap. Houston could elect to decline that option and sign him to a longer-term deal for less money per year, with Steven Adams entering unrestricted free agency, and Aaron Holiday and Jock Landale on non-guaranteed deals totaling $12 million. But Smith and Eason will be extension-eligible this offseason, Thompson will be eligible for a massive payday in a year, and extensions kick in next season for Sengun and Green that increase their salaries from a combined $17.8 million to more than $33 million each.
But will Houston’s postseason problems on offense be solved with its current core? Can Sengun be a number one scoring option on a contending team, or will help be needed from outside the organization? Is Thompson a superstar in the making, even if he doesn’t develop offensively? As their younger players improve and grow into larger roles, is this team good enough to contend as it is?
As the roster gets quickly expensive, the Rockets have to answer questions about their long-term future faster than they probably want to, as teams’ contention windows continue to shrink under the new collective bargaining agreement.
With a roster full of young, controllable, high-upside players and a full cache of draft assets including Phoenix’s first-round pick this year that’s likely to fall in the top 10 — and could potentially net an even more valuable piece with some lottery luck — Houston is a prime example of a team that has what it takes to make a consolidation trade for any NBA superstar who may become available via trade this offseason.
The most speculated example of who Houston could acquire is Giannis Antetokounmpo, who could justifiably ask out of Milwaukee as the team has no control over any of its first-round picks until 2031, and with Damian Lillard dealing with long-term recovery after tearing his Achilles in the playoffs. If the Greek Freak demands a trade, expect the Rockets to be a leading suitor. Would they trade Thompson or Sengun if the Bucks asked? How Houston General Manager Rafael Stone would manage those hypothetical negotiations is one of the offseason’s most intriguing scenarios.
If Boston took a drastic measure with its core and put Jaylen Brown on the market, Houston would have the young players the Celtics would want as supporting players to put around Jayson Tatum to ensure they’re competing for titles every year in his prime. Houston will also receive Phoenix’s 2025 and 2027 first-round picks, and possibly its 2029, too, making the two natural trading partners if either of the Suns’ All-Stars becomes available.
Like one of Texas’s famed highway interchanges, there are many directions in which the Rockets can take this offseason. It could push forward with its current core and trust that its youth movement will produce wins while determining which neophytes they should build around in the process. Or the Rockets can cash in their chips and acquire a superstar that catapults them to the NBA’s elite.
What path Houston decides to take will not only impact its long-term future but also how the league looks moving forward.
