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4 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thanksgiving Day 2023

This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.

CeeDee or CMC? Get ready for a full NFL slate for the holiday by considering these player prop bets.

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire’s game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

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Sam LaPorta Any Time Touchdown (+185)

The Thanksgiving slate of games offers a vast spread of props to pick from, so let’s dive in!

The first game on the slate sees the Detroit Lions as 7.5-point home favorites against the Green Bay Packers, with a total of 46.5 points.

A 27.00 implied team total for the Lions is a good indication they are going to be putting up some points and we want to capture that via the any time touchdown market with their tight end, Sam LaPorta.

The rookie tight end has played a solid role for the Lions this season and brings a strong combination of red zone role, matchup, and odds for us to target this week.

This season, LaPorta has a 20.1% target share, 20.0% air yards share, while playing on 82.3% of the snaps, and running a route on 77.2% of dropbacks. Mix in a 20.6% red zone target share, which is the second-highest on the team, and LaPorta maintains a strong role in the Lions’ offense.

The Packers are very middle-of-the-road against tight ends this season with the 16th most (482) yards allowed and tied for the fourth-most (3) touchdowns allowed.

This is not a matchup we need to be overly worried about for LaPorta, who has proven to have a solid role once the Lions get to the scoring area.

CeeDee Lamb Over 7.5 Receptions (+112)

The Dallas Cowboys are rolling on offense right now and there’s plenty of value with their player props.

A slate-high 29.50 implied team total should be no surprise for a team averaging over 30 points per game. They also happened to be matched up against the Washington Commanders, who are the league’s worst defense this season with 305 total points allowed through 11 games.

The Commanders are exceptionally bad at guarding wide receivers, which puts CeeDee Lamb in an unbelievable matchup. Washington has allowed the most (2,110) receiving yards to wide receivers, the most (15) touchdowns, and the eighth-most (142) receptions.

Lamb has been downright fantastic this season with the third-most (1,013) receiving yards and the sixth-most (74) receptions this season. This is even after having just four receptions in four of the first five games this season.

Lamb has piled up 11 receptions or more in three of the last four weeks, a volume most receivers in the NFL cannot match.

For the year, Lamb has a 27.0% target share and a 35.4% air yards share, both of which lead the Cowboys. Over the last four weeks, those numbers have jumped to a 32.7% target share and 41.9% air yards share. In these four weeks, his target share is double the next highest player on the Cowboys.

It’s been pure dominance for Lamb over this stretch and a super favorable matchup should allow him to pile up the receptions against Washington.

While Thanksgiving is all about turkey, this game is all about Lamb.

Christian McCaffrey Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Let’s turn to one of the best running backs in the league, Christian McCaffrey.

Over 32.5 receiving yards for CMC is my favorite prop for him this week against the Seattle Seahawks. This matchup has the San Francisco 49ers as 7.0-point road favorites, where the over/under sits at 43.5.

The Seahawks defense has been up-and-down this season, while struggling against running backs in the passing game. If any running back can jump on a weak matchup it’s CMC.

Seattle has allowed 439 receiving yards to running backs this season, which is the seventh-most in the NFL.

CMC comes in with a 19.5% target share, which is the third-highest on the 49ers. That rate has taken a noticeable step forward in their last three games, jumping to 26.8%, putting him as the second-highest on the team.

He’s getting plenty of work in the passing game and it leads to numberFire’s projections having him going for 42.12 receiving yards and hitting the over on his prop.

Curtis Samuel Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

With a limited role and a tough matchup, under 29.5 receiving yards for Curtis Samuel is the spot to look.

This is a rather straightforward prop and although the total is low, it’s worth targeting.

The Cowboys’ defense is elite this season, there’s really no other way to put it. They have allowed 1,068 receiving yards and 87 receptions to opposing wide receivers, both of which are the second-fewest in the NFL.

They simply do not allow opposing teams to move the ball effectively through the air and have the clamps down on defense.

When it comes to Samuel, he has a low 13.7% target share, which is tied for the fourth-highest among the Commanders. This is due to him playing on just 53.3% of the snaps and running a route on 54.% of drop backs.

Those numbers have declined as the season has gone on and now sit at an 8.9% target share, while playing on 27.5% of the snaps, and running a route on 28.9% of dropbacks.

None of this is encouraging for Samuel, which should lead to under 29.5 receiving yards this week.

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