Want to feel old? We’ve just kicked off the second half of the 2020s (sorry)!
We’re just over two weeks away from crowning the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff champion, five weeks away from determining the Super Bowl LIX title, and 23 weeks before we kick off the inaugural FIFA Club World Cup, the 32-team soccer tournament taking place across the United States. We get two new leagues beginning in January in Florida, with TGL teeing off on Monday and Unrivaled tipping off on Jan. 17.
As we set the stage for an eventful 2025, here are 10 sports business predictions for the year to come that are, of course, speculative, plus a few bonus quick hits.
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Netflix will add rights to at least one NFL international game and also acquire WWE premium live events rights from Peacock
On the heels of broadcasting the NFL’s Christmas doubleheader, the announcement that it’s secured the United States media rights to the 2027 and 2031 FIFA Women’s World Cups, and just two days from the premiere of Monday Night Raw to begin a 10-year, $5 billion deal, I’m pretty sure Netflix won’t stay satisfied. With Netflix getting WWE’s premium live events (PLE) outside North America as part of the package, the streamer will add U.S. PLEs next year after Peacock’s contract expires this year.
It’s also no secret that the NFL wants to sell a separate package of its international games eventually, but that probably won’t happen until the league’s next media rights deal. However, that won’t stop Netflix from spending between $50-100 million for a game in London, Berlin, Mexico City, or Dublin. This interest in streaming packages from the likes of Netflix, Amazon, Apple, YouTube TV, and others is just a preview of what’s to come when the NFL media rights are up in 2029.
If the NBA can get nearly $20 billion over 11 years from Amazon, the NFL has to be licking its chops for what it can get in a digital-only deal by pitting the tech giants against each other in a bidding war for the ages.
The SEC & Big 10 will gain even more momentum in determining college football’s future.
Conference commissioners are considering expanding the College Football Playoff field from 12 to 14 teams for 2026. The Big 10 and SEC combined for seven of the 12 teams in the 2024-25 bracket, and that’s after a rare down year for Alabama would’ve normally brought that number up to eight. So it’s no surprise that the two super conferences hold most of the bargaining power — generating the most ratings, revenue, and interest — in wanting to guarantee themselves automatic byes or locking in a certain number of at-large bids. How long will the Big 12 and ACC be able to hold out as 1-2 CFP bid leagues before their top schools will want to leave for greener pastures? A superleague model seems inevitable here.
The NBA will announce two expansion teams in Las Vegas and Seattle, with total franchise sales eclipsing $10 billion.
With the next media rights deal locked in at $76 billion beginning in the fall, this will be the long-awaited year that the NBA makes it official, announcing franchises in Las Vegas and Seattle to increase the number of teams to 32. While the sales may not be made official this year, expect the combined prices to bring in more than $10 billion before the clubs begin play for the 2027-28 season. With two new teams out west, the league will elect to move the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Eastern Conference due to its geographical proximity to the teams in the Central Division, though the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans will also receive consideration.
There have also been reported discussions between the NBA and FIBA about creating an alternative European league to the EuroLeague, whose teams can elect to extend or opt out of that arrangement after the 2025-26 season. Expect the NBA to get commitments from a few marquee clubs in preparation for a full European outfit in the fall of 2026.
The Juan Soto contract will easily pay for itself.
New York Mets owner Steve Cohen blew every MLB contract ever out of the water when he gave Juan Soto his record 15-year, $765 million contract with no deferrals. How will Cohen ever truly recoup the humongous dollar value from that deal? It’s actually quite simple. As Cohen tries to win a competitive New York City casino license as part of an $8 billion revitalization of the area around Citi Field, Soto’s presence as a Met will be a part of his pitch for the area’s new-age renaissance.
If Cohen and Hard Rock Entertainment win the casino bid, a major if in a crowded and competitive field, Soto’s signing will quickly pay dividends in a major way. I think the project will win the bid in Q4.
WNBA TV ratings will remain flat from last year — and that’s a good thing.
Nationally televised WNBA games averaged 657,000 viewers last season, the highest total in 24 years, including ESPN and CBS games drawing more than 1 million viewers per contest. That was a 170% year-over-year increase for ESPN. The W will continue to ride its amazing wave of growing popularity in 2025, with record attendance and growing interest worldwide. And while TV ratings will remain flat year-over-year— and the league will get criticized for it as women’s sports, unfortunately, remains a polarizing political football — due to some inevitable churn and Caitlin Clark no longer new to WNBA viewing audiences, maintaining the 2024 audience is actually a sign of health and stability as the W continues its ascent.
The Washington Commanders will get the green light to return to D.C. before March 1.
On Monday, legislation was approved to transfer control of the old RFK Stadium site from the federal government to the city of Washington, D.C., paivng the way for the city to negotiate a deal with the Washington Commanders to bring the team back to their longtime home. Assuming the deal goes through, I would expect that the new stadium will be built and completed by 2030 as the Commanders continue their momentum on and off the field under new ownership.
Expect NWSL to outdraw other major sports on TV regularly.
As part of women’s sports’ aforementioned ascent last year, NWSL averaged 175,000 TV viewers during the regular season and 562,900 in the playoffs. The NWSL Championship drew a record 967,900 to CBS, more than doubling the 468,000 that watched MLS Cup on Fox. For network TV matches on CBS and ABC, expect NWSL to consistently attract more viewers than MLS, MLB, and NHL games on cable or even broadcast. The appetite for women’s soccer will continue to grow in 2025.
At least six players across leagues will earn $200 million-plus contracts.
While no player will approach the $765 million deal Soto received last month, at least six athletes will receive contracts worth at least $200 million in 2025. In baseball, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Kyle Tucker are all due for monster free agent contracts next fall. In an NBA landscape where a vast majority of the top free agents are over 30, All-Star 27-year-old Brandon Ingram is uniquely positioned to get a max contract in July. And from Mr. Irrelevant to the next hottest commodity in the NFL, Brock Purdy will be the main prize of football’s free agency class in March where he’ll cash out on an improbably impressive start to his pro career.
The PGA and LIV Golf will finally merge.
Since an initial merger was announced 18 months ago, there’s been a tangle of issues to sort through in order to bring a PGA–LIV accord to fruition. There have been issues with scheduling, navigating antitrust laws, payments agreed on to lure superstar golfers from PGA to LIV in the first place, and a slew of others. But it will end with Saudi Arabia’s multi-billion dollar investment in golf’s governing body and a united front in time for the 2026 season. Having an incoming presidential administration that’s friendly with the Saudis probably won’t hurt, either.
The Women’s Lacrosse League will quickly expand.
I felt the enthusiasm in the room in November when the Women’s Lacrosse League was introduced, with the Premier Lacrosse League rightly utilizing girls’ and women’s lacrosse’s popularity in a largely untapped market. That enthusiasm will carry over into the WLL’s inaugural season in February, so much so that the league will expand to six, if not eight, teams for 2026 as women’s lacrosse ramps up for inclusion in the 2028 Olympics.
Bonus Predictions
- The Tampa Bay Rays will begin a relocation process after its stadium deal falls through.
- There will be further doubts about whether the Athletics will ever get a stadium in Las Vegas, as their first season in Sacramento is a logistical disaster.
- U.S. sportsbooks will make an even larger effort to get fans to make live, in-game bets, further incentivizing customer engagement during matches as the technology improves.
- Stephen A. Smith will regularly appear on Inside The NBA next season as NBC and Amazon aggressively pursue Shaquille O’Neal. Dirk Nowitzki and Blake Griffin will be smash hits on Prime Video, and more top talent like Smith and Shaq will be pressured by their employers to embrace the fad and start their own podcasts in networks’ search for a viral hit.
- As private equity and billionaires continue to infiltrate the college sports landscape, a superstar collegiate athlete will get a $10 million NIL contract.
