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Get set for Blaydes vs. Aspinall, Hermansson vs. Curtis, Pimblett vs. Leavitt, and more at UFC Fight Night 208 with the latest betting odds and picks from FanDuel Sportsbook.
UFC London was such a hit back in March that the promotion is headed back just a few months later. A lot of the United Kingdom’s stars that made the night memorable will reappear, too, including fan favorites Paddy Pimblett and Molly McCann.
UFC London: Blaydes vs. Aspinall will take place Saturday from the O2 Arena in London, England. So, MMA bets stand out on FanDuel Sportsbook?
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Molly McCann and Marc Diakiese to Both Win
(-192; 2.25 Units)
Matt Schnell’s rally that will live in the UFC record books was a lot less fun considering his opponent was in last week’s two-legger. That dropped the parlay’s record to 12-8 in 2022, but I don’t mind laying units and juice on this one to rebound.
Fittingly, a pair of English fighters are inside of it this week. Both Molly McCann (-460) and Marc Diakiese (-400) will see phenomenal matchups for them.
Making her home in Liverpool, McCann has benefitted from the rocketship attached to her teammate Paddy Pimblett’s stardom. Her UFC career was sliding due to her 34% takedown defense, but now with preferential treatment from the promotion, she’ll see her second straight opponent without much wrestling.
Hannah Goldy averages just 0.61 takedowns per 15 minutes, and she’s moving up 10 pounds in weight for this bout. It’s just not likely she gets McCann to the ground, and in that case, McCann’s 5.83 significant strikes landed per minute on 50% accuracy is as good as striking offense gets in her division. Goldy’s 50% striking defense compared to McCann’s (64%) is a real concern.
The second leg is Diakiese from Yorkshire, and I love watching fighters use smart gameplans to learn their own strengths like he just did. Diakiese was on a 2-5 skid trying to strike with lightweight’s best strikers, and it didn’t go well. He returned to his wrestling by landing 11 takedowns during his last bout in a comfortable win.
He’ll have a wonderful opportunity to do the same on Saturday. His opponent, Damir Hadzovic, has just a 37% takedown defense. He’s been taken down 4.0 times on average in his UFC losses. I’d also give Diakiese — aptly nicknamed “Bonecrusher” — an edge on the feet thanks to his power, but the path to least resistance is obvious through grappling.
Chris Curtis to Win
(-113; 1.0 Unit)
Darren Till’s injury forced him off a UFC London card he had been targeting for months, but it set up a better fight.
Jack Hermansson will now face Chris Curtis (-113) in the middleweight main event, and it speaks volumes to me that Curtis currently sits in a pick ’em with the longtime middleweight stalwart.
Curtis answered every question a few weeks ago against legendary grappler Rodolfo Vieira. He defended all 20 takedown attempts thwart any submission danger; Curtis’ 100% takedown defense now has to be considered amongst the elite marks in the sport. Vieira had landed multiple takedowns on every opponent to that point.
In a striking match, not many can compete with “The Action Man.” Curtis lands 7.23 significant strikes per minute at a card-best 65% accuracy. His striking defense (48%) is a bit concerning, but he’s never even been wobbled by four powerful strikers since his debut.
Hermansson, if he is unable to land takedowns as well, should be a step behind striking. He posts just 4.97 significant strikes per minute on 44% accuracy. His defense (54%) is better, but not nearly by the margin he’s behind offensively.
On just two weeks’ notice, Curtis is getting plenty of respect from oddsmakers. Chris’ teammate, Sean Strickland, dismantled Hermansson earlier this year with less-efficient peripherals, so the American is absolutely the process play in this one.
Dart Throw of the Week: Kyle Nelson by Submission
(+1100; 0.5 Units)
Jai Herbert covered the spread at UFC London in March by knocking down Ilia Topuria and winning the first round as a huge underdog, but he was promptly flattened by Topuria in the second.
Herbert’s UFC career has been stuck in neutral since his 2020 debut. He’s a one-dimensional striker with poor offensive accuracy (36%) and poor defense (45%). That’s a poor combo, and it’s resulted in a -0.43 striking success rate overall.
“The Black Country Banger” has solid power (three knockdowns in four fights) that’s rescued him, but one thing that he can’t do is grapple. He has just a 42% takedown defense and was smothered by Renato Moicano two fights ago.
While Kyle Nelson (+230) isn’t the world’s best grappler, he can do it a little. His rate of 1.90 submission attempts per 15 minutes is actually fourth-best on this card.
Herbert’s standing as a -310 favorite here is based on his power. He’s -105 to win via knockout. If that doesn’t come to fruition, Nelson could find a way to plant Herbert on the mat where he’ll have massive technical advantages.
This flier has just an 8.3% implied probability to hit. Personally, that’s way too low for how lost Herbert has looked grappling thus far.
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